The /Film Crew’s 2018 Oscar Predictions

The 90th Academy Awards are this weekend and you know what that means. It’s time to fill our your prediction ballot, head to the Oscar party of your choosing, and win a bunch of money. Winning Oscar betting pools is a staple of film fandom. Embrace it!

But before you fill out your ballot, you should consult some experts. And after you’ve done that, check out /Film’s 2018 Oscar predictions.

2018 Oscar Predictions

Here’s how this works. Each member of the /Film staff filled out their own ballot. In each category, they had 100 points to spend. They could put all 100 points on a single nominee or split it amongst the nominees as they saw fit. If they felt someone was a lock, they could put all of their points on a single nominee. If they were unsure or felt the category was hotly contested, they could hedge their bets. We then collected everyone’s points together for a big group prediction.

Naturally, we’re keeping score and will reveal which staff member won our office pool next week. The winner gets bragging rights for a year.

And now, onto our predictions!

Best Picture

Call Me by Your Name – 0 points

Darkest Hour – 0 points

Dunkirk – 50 points

Get Out – 100 points

Lady Bird – 0 points

Phantom Thread – 0 points

The Post – 10 points

The Shape of Water – 300 points

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – 80 points

This is one of the most unpredictable Best Picture races in years, but the edge still went to The Shape of Water. With 13 nominations, it seems like it’s the least controversial choice…and it’s a damn good movie, to boot. Still, it wouldn’t surprise us in the slightest to see an upset from Get Out or Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

Lead Actor

Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name – 50 points

Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread – 100 points

Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out – 20 points

Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour – 400 points

Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq. – 0 points

A highly respected actor buries himself behind mountains of make-up to play a real-life historical figure in a performance that is huge and dramatic and full of showy moments? Yeah, this is Gary Oldman’s trophy…unless the Academy decides to give Daniel Day-Lewis Oscar #4 or realizes that Timothée Chalamet is a revelation.

Lead Actress

Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water – 60 points

Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – 430 points

Margot Robbie – I, Tonya – 20 points

Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird – 70 points

Meryl Streep – The Post – 30 points

This is another category that feels like a sure thing. It’s been an uphill battle for Three Billboards all awards season long, but everyone seems to agree that Frances McDormand is astounding in the lead role. Expect her to collect her second Oscar.

Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project – 170 points

Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – 25 points

Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water – 20 points

Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World – 0 points

Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – 385 points

Six months ago, this was Willem Dafoe’s award to lose. However, Sam Rockwell’s momentum over the past few months cannot be denied and he’s looking like the favorite now. But if anyone can upset, it’s Dafoe, playing against type in a well-regarded movie that didn’t receive much Oscar love elsewhere.

Supporting Actress

Mary J. Blige – Mudbound – 0 points

Allison Janney – I, Tonya – 530 points

Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread – 0 points

Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird – 70 points

Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water – 0 points

If this is anyone other than Allison Janney, we will eat an ice skate. The beloved character actress used to dominate the Emmy Awards, so it’s about time she got an Oscar.

Director

Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread – 30 points

Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water – 440 points

Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird – 0 points

Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk – 60 points

Jordan Peele – Get Out – 70 points

Even as Best Picture remains an open race, Best Director seems sewn up in favor of Guillermo del Toro. His momentum is nothing short of unstoppable. Plus, people like him and his movie. Win-win.

Animated Feature

The Boss Baby – 0 points

The Breadwinner – 20 points

Coco – 550 points

Ferdinand – 0 points

Loving Vincent – 30 points

Yeah, there’s always a chance of an upset here, but Pixar’s Coco has this one locked down. No other major animated release came close to touching it last year.

Animated Short

Dear Basketball – 280 points

Garden Party – 50 points

Lou – 100 points

Negative Space – 120 points

Revolting Rhymes – 50 points

As is often the case with the short film awards, your guess is as good as ours. The star power behind Dear Basketball (Glen Keane and Kobe Bryant, with a score by John Williams) gives it an edge in this case.

Adapted Screenplay

Call Me by Your Name – James Ivory – 470 points

The Disaster Artist – Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber – 0 points

Logan – Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green – 20 points

Molly’s Game – Aaron Sorkin – 80 points

Mudbound – Virgil Williams and Dee Rees – 30 points

Call Me By Your Name has to get some love somewhere, so it might as well be here. It helps that screenwriter James Ivory is an 89-year old veteran screenwriter and director who has been nominated three other times. He will get his Oscar this weekend.

Original Screenplay

The Big Sick – Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani – 40 points

Get Out – Jordan Peele – 365 points

Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig – 80 points

The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor – 10 points

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh – 105 points

Get Out feels like it’s just out of reach when it comes to Best Picture and Best Director, but Best Original Screenplay feels like the right place to honor it. However, Lady Bird and Three Billboards aren’t going down without a fight.

Cinematography

Blade Runner 2049 – 465 points

Darkest Hour – 0 points

Dunkirk – 20 points

Mudbound – 0 points

The Shape of Water – 115 points

Blade Runner 2049 marks Roger Deakins’ 14th Oscar nomination. Will he finally win? Well, he did shoot the best looking movie of 2017, but that hasn’t always mattered in this category. The Shape of Water could pick this one up if it gathers enough momentum.

Best Documentary Feature

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail – 10 points

Faces Places – 250 points

Icarus – 220 points

Last Men in Aleppo – 110 points

Strong Island – 10 points

There’s no “sure thing” nominee this year in this category, so it’s a coin toss between Faces Places and Icarus. Although Last Men in Aleppo could sneak in there.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Edith+Eddie – 90 points

Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 – 220 points

Heroin(e) – 210 points

Knife Skills – 50 points

Traffic Stop – 50 points

Place your bets! We sure did! But we have no idea!

Best Live Action Short Film

DeKalb Elementary – 300 points

The Eleven O’Clock – 50 points

My Nephew Emmett – 100 points

The Silent Child – 100 points

Watu Wote/All of Us – 50 points

Once again: we have no idea. These are the categories that randomly make or break every Oscar prediction ballot.

Best Foreign Language Film

A Fantastic Woman (Chile) – 380 points

The Insult (Lebanon) – 0 points

Loveless (Russia) – 0 points

On Body and Soul (Hungary) – 100 points

The Square (Sweden) – 120 points

A Fantastic Woman seems to have the edge going into the weekend, but don’t count out The Square or On Body and Soul. However, the former allows the Oscars to honor a good movie and make a progressive political statement, which may give it the edge.

Film Editing

Baby Driver – 300 points

Dunkirk – 300 points

I, Tonya – 0 points

The Shape of Water – 0 points

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – 0 points

Baby Driver and Dunkirk are the two best edited movies of 2017, so here they are, neck and neck in our Oscars predictions. Dunkirk may have the edge because it’s a big, frantic war movie, but awarding Baby Driver would certainly make the Academy look hip.

Sound Editing

Baby Driver – 100 points

Blade Runner 2049 – 0 points

Dunkirk – 500 points

The Shape of Water – 0 points

Star Wars: The Last Jedi – 0 points

War movies tend to dominate this category and Dunkirk will probably walk away with this one. Still, don’t count out Baby Driver‘s impressive soundscape.

Sound Mixing

Baby Driver – 150 points

Blade Runner 2049 – 0 points

Dunkirk – 300 points

The Shape of Water – 0 points

Star Wars: The Last Jedi – 150 points

This is probably another win for Dunkirk, but Baby Driver and Star Wars: The Last Jedi could give it a run for its gold.

Production Design

Beauty and the Beast – 0 points

Blade Runner 2049 – 160 points

Darkest Hour – 0 points

Dunkirk – 0 points

The Shape of Water – 440 points

Many headlines were written about how The Shape of Water achieved its gorgeous, gothic sets on a tight budget. That narrative gives it the edge on Blade Runner 2049, which had all the money in the world.

Original Score

Dunkirk – 50 points

Phantom Thread – 220 points

The Shape of Water – 330 points

Star Wars: The Last Jedi – 0 points

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Carter Burwell – 0 points

This could be a tight one. The Shape of Water has the edge because this category sometimes favors Best Picture frontrunners. Still, don’t count out Jonny Greenwood’s Phantom Thread score, especially since many believe him to be long overdue for an Oscar.

Original Song

“Mighty River” from Mudbound – Mary J. Blige – 50 points

“Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name – Sufjan Stevens – 0 points

“Remember Me” from Coco – Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez – 440 points

“Stand Up for Something” from Marshall – Diane Warren and Common – 0 points

“This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman – Benj Pasek and Justin Paul – 110 points

If The Greatest Showman had received more love in other categories, it would own this trophy. But it didn’t, so it doesn’t. It has some incredibly stiff competition from Coco.

Makeup and Hair

Darkest Hour – 600 points

Victoria and Abdul – 0 points

Wonder – 0 points

Look, they transformed Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill. This category is a lock unlike any others.

Costume Design

Beauty and the Beast – 60 points

Darkest Hour – 0 points

Phantom Thread – 420 points

The Shape of Water – 100 points

Victoria and Abdul – 0 points

Phantom Thread is a period movie about dressmaking! It should win this one! It hits all of the right buttons! And yet, The Shape of Water lurks in the background, watching and waiting…

Visual Effects

Blade Runner 2049 – 280 points

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 – 0 points

Kong: Skull Island – 0 points

Star Wars: The Last Jedi – 0 points

War for the Planet of the Apes – 320 points

Does this award go to the remarkable motion capture performances of War for the Planet of the Apes or the vivid future cityscapes of Blade Runner 2049? We give the edge to Caesar.

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